I recently did an in-depth interview with Michael Annisimov (of *Accelerating Future*) concerning Machine Intelligence Research Institute’s technical research program and newly hired staff.

I updated the debates page again.

New Less Wrong post: The Optimizer’s Curse and How to Beat It.

Lol. First Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem. I tried to simplify his tutorial with An Intuitive Explanation of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem. Now 21st Century Mongoose has written An Intuitive Explanation of An Intuitive Explanation of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Intuitive Explanation of Bayes’ Theorem.

From Twitter:

- My favorite popular scientific self-help books.
- New SEP article on abduction and Bayesian confirmation theory.
- The death of postmodernism and beyond.
- Who studied under whom in neuroscience? Check: Neurotree.org.
- I’ve started writing stuff in Markdown, and then converting to HTML when things are ready for publication.

Previous post: Theology in a Nutshell

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

The Dawkins debate with Bill Craig is actually a Craig vs. Grayling debate.

Bill Maher(Quote)

Unless I completely misunderstood your post it looks like things could be solved by simply making the analysts use bayesian priors when they’re generating their value estimates. The analysts and the decision maker should both be using the same data along with bayes when they’re making a value estimate. The only time the approach you outline would be relevant is when your analysts are non-baysian. In that case it’s probably time to clean house.

Adito(Quote)

What do you think upon this atheistic argument?:

http://www.strongatheism.net/library/atheology/argument_from_existence/

flavio(Quote)

And the best (and shortest) explanation of Bayes’ yet: http://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/

haig(Quote)